Editor’s Note: This recurring series is written by Billy Costigan.
We’ve been treated to an awesome first three weeks of the Premier Lacrosse League. This week takes us to one of the greatest lacrosse venues in the world, historic Homewood Field at Johns Hopkins University.
The amount of talent that has played on that turf over the years may just be unparalleled. So it’s only fitting that now the greatest collection of lacrosse players in the world get to spend this weekend competing there, in the heart of one of lacrosse’s biggest hotbeds.
PLL Week 1-3 Recap
The action in this league so far has been amazing. With only 8 teams to fill, they really are all loaded with talent. No team is really out of contention this early with only 3 games under their belts and 7 regular season games per team remaining, counting this weekend. That’s part of what makes this league so exciting!
Now let’s take a look at how the betting tickets have been falling so far. It is important to note that like with data on most anything, sample size is important. Generally the more data points you put in, the better the information you get out on the other side is.
With other leagues that play over 80 or 100 games per team, it’s easier to wait until you have many more games before weighing the stats as heavily.
In this case though we are only 3 games in, but 30% done the regular season. So you have to balance and weigh the numbers for the chunk of the season you have, while keeping in mind it is technically a small sample size of games.
Also remember like always, picking a bet should be a combination of as many different factors and pieces of information as you can gather.
So below I am posting the recap charts of the 1st 3 weeks. The 2nd row of each chart has the totals for how each type bet did that week. After week 1, the 3rd row has the season long totals for how each type of bet has been doing through that week of the season. Bets highlighted in green won and bets highlighted in red lost (all these odds are taken from Draftkings Sportsbook in New Hampshire).
So while you do want to keep in mind the sample size, it’s also good to start looking at these numbers for how favorites/underdogs or overs/unders did. Watching them as they develop should give you a head start on noticing any patterns. Hopefully as the season progresses we can find some trends from this information to help us cash more tickets!
PLL Week 4 Report
Redwoods +1.5 (+105) / Moneyline +150
Whipsnakes -1.5 (-135) / Moneyline -185
Over 22.5 (-115) / Under 22.5 (-115)
Kicking off this awesome weekend of PLL action we have a rematch of the league’s first ever title game. Any time these two squads meet up there is no love lost, when Woods and Whips are on the field it’s going to get physical.
Last week the Redwoods looked solid defeating the Chaos. But the Chaos were still without a lot of their core players from the NLL. Could be compared to an NFL team who’s starting quarterback is out the first 4 games and they are just trying to tread water until they are back. It wasn’t the same beating the New England Patriots with Matt Cassell under center as with Tom Brady right?
While the Redwoods do have a solid faceoff guy in Ierlan, the Whipsnakes counter back well with Nardella. The Whipsnakes will also have super star Zed Williams back in the lineup as well.
I’m thinking that the Whipsnakes are coming into solid form while the Redwoods are riding a false high. While I’d rather get the better price on Whipsnakes -1.5, the underdog has covered in these team’s last three meetings. Something about a little extra energy from rivalries can often keep a game closer than it should be.
So let’s play it safe with Whipsnakes to win and Heningburg over points. Also worth noting over half the Whipsnakes squad played college at schools in Maryland and this game is in Baltimore. So one would think those Whipsnake players are going to have some extra friends and family in the stands and a little extra motivation to put on a show for them.
Rambo or Jones over their points totals looks tempting as well but they have steep prices to lay. What you could do is parlay Rambo over 2.5 (who’s had success against woods before) or Jones over 2.5 (who if possible is looking even better lately) with another player prop from a different game. I like either of them parlayed with O’Keefe over 1.5 points, that 2 leg parlay will bring your payout up into the +120’s or +130’s.
Remember though you don’t want to be doing a ton of parlays or adding too many legs to them. Best to keep it to 2 or 3 max bets parlay’d together. This is also a decent situation to use it, combining 2 bets that are too much minus money to get a decent little plus money payout.
Pick: BET Whipsnakes -185
BET Parlay either Jones or Rambo over with O’Keefe Over 1.5 Points
LEAN Rambo Over 2.5 Points (-200)
LEAN Jones Over 2.5 Points (-180)
Chaos -1.5 (-120) / Moneyline -155
Waterdogs +1.5 (-110) / Moneyline +125
Over 23.5 (-115) / Under 23.5 (-115)
Next up we have a battle of the two winless teams. But don’t count either yet, Waterdogs turned it on later last year and Chaos are the defending champs.
Picking on the spread or moneyline here is going to be a close call. The Waterdogs showed some good signs but really were only missing and getting one player back, their goalie Ward.
On the other side Chaos got not just one but a bunch of their stars back from the NLL in Byrne, Smith, Fraser, and MacKay. That is bound to make a huge difference to have so many talented players inserted back into your lineup. It’s possible some of them may have slow starts due to injury / fatigue or transitioning from the box. But overall I think the Chaos are going to look a lot better.
The look here is that Chaos already had one of the best goalies on the planet in Riorden. Now the Waterdogs also have another one of the best in Team Canada & reigning NLL Champion Ward. Riorden alone can be enough to lean the under. Mix that with Ward and the Chaos NLL guys maybe being slow to transition to field and find chemistry, and I’ll take the under for the game here.
Another type of bet I’ve found success with in the PLL often, is when I think a good offensive player’s prop total is too low. You’ll have to lay a heavy -205, but O’Keefe over 1.5 points is bet I love. You’re telling me the NCAA leading career goal scorer can’t get one goal and one assist? He’s already had 3 points in 2 of the 3 games this year.
Pick: BET Under 23.5 (-115)
BET O’Keefe Over 1.5 Points (-205)
Cannons +1.5 (+110) / Moneyline +150
Chrome -1.5 (-140) / Moneyline -185
Over 24.5 (-105) / Under 24.5
The first game of Saturday brings us the hot starting Chrome vs Cannons trying to make a name for themselves. While I do like some things about Cannons, I’m thinking they are just going to be a bit out matched here.
For Cannons to pull the upset here they need all players to be their absolute best. Huge games out of Thompson (who’s recent injury could be lurking or flare up, Rehfuss, Marrocco, and rookie Nolting.
Chrome on the other hand seems to have a lot more depth. More options so if a player or two has an off game the others can pick up the slack, a luxury Cannons may not have.
At the faceoff x Cannons have found some success this year with veteran Stephen Kelly. But he’ll have a tough matchup against PLL blue-blood Connor Farrell, who’s back to looking more like the super star he was in his first season.
This is also a case where if the Chrome moneyline is too much juice for you, I would recommend parlaying it with just the Whipsnakes moneyline for a better payout of +137.
Pick: BET Chrome -185
or BET Parlay Chrome -185 & Whipsnakes -185 = Parlay Payout of +137
BET Nichtern Over 3.5 Points +105
LEAN Nolting Over 2.5 Points +120
Archers +1.5 (-145) / Moneyline -110
Atlas -1.5 (+115) / Moneyline -120
Closing out the weekend we have a matchup of 2 very solid squads.
The Archers high powered offense is humming on all cylinders once again. Attackman Manny is in MVP talks. They still have one all time great Schreiber and many other weapons. In the cage too for the Archers, Ghitelman is someone I would want anchoring my team anyday.
Going up against the Archers though is Atlas who are honestly scary on offense and could be a problem for anyone this year. Between Teat, Law Carraway, and the addition of Gray their attack has been putting up numbers! Not to mention midfielders like Costabile, Aitken, Crawley, and Dennis who can all contribute as well.
One big potential issue for Archers here is faceoffs. It’s frequently throughout their entire history been an area that often holds them back in close games. If you’re close in all the other categories, those extra possessions can be a game changer.
For this matchup Archers will get rookie faceoff standout from Ohio State Inacio. They will need him to finish adjusting to the PLL quickly. Squaring off against the rookie is faceoff legend, PLL star, and this year quite the offensive weapon Baptiste.
Atlas are looking like they have the best faceoff man in the league at the moment. If Baptiste dominates that could be an issue for Archers. You don’t want to be giving the Atlas offensive weapons any more possessions and chances than you absolutely have to. Cannons will need Inacio to be very close to 50% or better. Neutralizing Baptiste will be essential but not easy.
While I believe Archers could win, I’ve been bit by their achilles heel at the faceoff x a few too many times over the years to take the moneyline. Give me Archers plus the points instead. They should be able to keep it within 1 goal, they’re very confident right now and will be highly motivated to make a statement.
Pick: BET Archers +1.5 (-145)
BET Gray Over 3.5 Points (+120)
Well folks there you have it, another week of the PLL to look forward to and enjoy.
I hope you have a great weekend watching the games at Homewood Field in Baltimore. That place is sure to be packed and rocking! It’s an all time great venue in my opinion.
Hopefully while you’re enjoying the games you’ll pick up on something that can be noteworthy for next week. Always a good idea to keep an eye on the bets you made and even those you didn’t. That way you can notice how things are trending and maybe find something useful to use in the future.
Be sure to check out my Twitter for more updates and plays throughout the weekend and as always my DM’s are open with any questions you may have about lacrosse or sports betting @bCostigan84.
Best of luck and let’s cash some bets!