Editor’s Note: This recurring series is written by Billy Costigan.
Welcome back lacrosse fans and sports bettors! Week 8 of the Premier Lacrosse League is upon us this weekend!
This is one of just four regular season weekends left for teams to solidify their place in the playoffs, as well as earn a spot in the first ever Championship Series coming this winter.
Week 8 Recap
Last weekend was another great round of games from Connecticut, with three games being decided by two points or less!
Favorites and underdogs split 2-2 both against the spread and on the moneyline. Three games went over and just one stayed under. This brought totals for the season even with both twelve overs and twelve unders.
Here’s how the bets fell in Week 7:
My four picks against the spread from last week’s article went 3-1 with only Chaos letting us down by a half point.
Archers easily covered over Cannons. Redwoods and Waterdogs got us wins as underdogs against the spread. You could have even taken either on the moneyline also, as they both ended up winning outright.
I’ve also updated my season long recap and betting standings through last week:
You’re probably already pretty familiar with the moneyline table as it coincides with the league standings.
Then against the spread, you’ll see about half the league is doing well and half isn’t. Every team is at 4-2 or 2-4 against the spread.
For totals a good chunk of the league is even at 3-3, overs and unders. However Chaos and Cannons have gone over four times and under just twice. While Chrome and Whipsnakes have gone under four times and over just twice.
Definitely small sample sizes, but some of these trends may be worth considering if the right matchup presents itself.
Week 8 Report
Saturday 2pm
Archers -1.5 (+120) / ML -125
Atlas +1.5 (-150) / ML -105
Over 25.5 (-105) / Under 25.5 (-125)
First up is a battle of 4-2 teams looking to solidify their spot towards the top of the league. The outcome of this one could no doubt have implications in the score differential column.
Both squads have solid defenses ranking in the top half of the league. Archers are anchored by Ghitelman (52%) and Atlas by Concannon (57%) in net.
Last time out Atlas got a 10-9 win thanks in part to a 83% day at the faceoff stripe. However that was with their MVP candidate Baptiste shining against an inexperienced rookie. Baptiste is questionable for this game though and even if he does play he may not be 100% healthy.
The health of Baptiste (72%) will be huge, as him fully contributing could mean a large advantage through extra possessions for Atlas. This could help tip the scales in a close matchup.
If Baptiste can’t go Atlas will turn to Phaup (38%) who does have potential despite a low percentage from his career debut last week.
Look for Archers rookie Inacio (48%) to try and build on the success of his 73% performance from last week. He must have learned a lot in his first meeting against Baptiste and the two outings since, with his percentages continuing to rise. That includes a game vs veteran star Ierlan as well.
One would have to think though Inacio has a much better chance of progression rather than regression if he faces the less experienced rookie Phaup, than all time great Baptiste.
On the offensive side of the ball, were’ looking at the top two offenses in the league.
Atlas have been able to rely on their attack with players like Teat (22 points), Gray (21 points), and Law (18 points). Lately Costabile (12 points) and Bucaro (8 points) have also been contributing from the midfield.
More midfield production from a deeper list of players would serve Atlas well. While they do have some amazing players right now, what happens when an opponent successfully shuts off one or two of their go to guys?
For their opponents though, offensive depth seems to be the Archers’ middle name this season. They have so many options on this side of the ball, it doesn’t leave opposing defenses with many good options for who to cover with short sticks or who to slide from.
Veterans like Schreiber (22 points), Holman (17 points), and Manny (28 points) seem to be somehow playing at an even higher level lately.
Plus they just added back world class attackman Ament (2 points) to the mix.
In addition, Archers are getting great production from rookies Moore (16 points) and DeSimone (12 points) who don’t appear to be rookies at all when dodging. Defenses are often forced to put short sticks on these rookies, which doesn’t always end well.
Just like in college, Moore is earning a reputation in the PLL for running and / or scoring literally through defenders, especially short sticks. DeSimone can also hold his own one on one dodging to generate offense.
Fields (5 points) and Ambler (7 points) help round out the offensive attack for Archers.
Even Leclaire (8 points) from a “defensive” midfield role can contribute on offense. An amazing athlete he can help trap opposing offensive players on defense in transition. Also possessing a great offensive skill set, Leclaire can then contribute to Archers’ high powered offensive machine.
Whether in transition or after in settled offensive situations, Leclaire is not your average defensive midfielder. He’ll definitely look to be a part of the attack when the chance is there.
Any mismatches Leclaire creates through transition play only help to increase his chances of finding holes in a defense, while also possibly better setting up Archers’ core offensive group.
It’s kind of a double edged sword here. First a mismatch traps an offensive player on defense and weakens the opponent’s defense. Then attacking that weakened defense is an opponent’s defensive midfielder who has the second most goals in Ohio State lacrosse history.
You also definitely don’t want to give any advantages like that to the offensive juggernaut of Archers, which will surround defensive midfielders Lecaire or Harris if they do find themselves with a chance to contribute to the offense.
This is certain to be a close battle between two teams who both have good chances at a deep run this year. So taking the points with Atlas may not be the worst call here, since I’m not totally comfortable trusting Archers to cover.
Without Baptiste playing though (or very limited) I like Archers here to get the win. They barely lost the last meeting and that was with Baptisite giving Atlas such an advantage. With potentially more even results at the faceoff X removing Atlas’ biggest difference maker, we may see a different outcome.
Count a combination of Baptiste being out or limited, combined with Inacio’s development to tip the scales in the Archers’ favor this time and take them on the moneyline.
Definitely keep an eye on any updated injury news though. If you get reason to believe Baptiste will be very healthy, you may want to consider Atlas +1.5 instead and just hope for a one goal game.
If live betting is available to you during this game, that could also present opportunities.
Perhaps you might try to look for a live line to get Archer plus some points if they go down a bit early or any other bet at a better price.
Be careful though, especially with live betting, you don’t want to chase your bets.
Keep in mind your research and which teams / bets you were targeting. You can combine that with the info you’re getting from watching / evaluating the live contest and monitoring the live lines in relation to the contest. Then look for a bet you find advantageous, based on what you know.
Pick: Archers -125
Saturday 4:30pm
Chrome +1.5 (-145) / ML +100
Whipsnakes -1.5(+115) / ML -130
Over 23.5 (-115) / Under 23.5 (-115)
Here’s another game that could really shape the top of the standings in 5-1 Whipsnakes vs 4-2 Chrome.
It’s another solid goaltending matchup here between Whipsnakes’ Bernlohr (56%) and Chrome’s Sconone (52%).
Chrome have found veteran production from their midfield in Anderson (11 points) and MacIntosh (10 points).
Rookie attackmen Wisnauskas (18 points) and Nichtern (24 points) have also contributed for Chrome.
After a season high 7 points last week, Nichtern will face one of his toughest matchups yet here though from Whipsnakes’ defender Dunn.
Nichtern likes to work off screens and Dunn plays through those very well. Can Dunn limit Chrome’s young star?
Whipsnakes can always turn to tried and true offensive weapons Rambo (18 points) and Williams (6 points) at attack.
Midfielders Chanenchuk (12 points), Smith (11 points), and Kirst (7 points) have also been chipping in for Whipsnakes this season.
Guterding (14 points) has been a very valuable piece for Whipsnakes as well. He’s stepped in at both midfield and attack this season, finding success at both spots. A successful Guterding could go a long way for Whipsnakes.
The faceoff X again finds itself as a key potential tipping point in yet another PLL contest. Here we have two proven players in Whipsnakes Nardella (66%) vs Chrome’s Farrell (61%).
As often is the case in a high powered face off matchup, this one may be about just neutralizing the opponent as much as it’s about gaining an edge.
While Farrell is no scrub, I would have to lean Nardella here. If Farerell can keep Nardella from dominating, that would help Chrome’s chances. You don’t want to be giving a team like Whipsnakes a lot of extra possessions.
At first look Whipsnakes moneyline is very tempting. However Chrome does have a shot here so I think I’m going to ride with the underdog plus the points and hope for a Chrome win or at least a loss by no more than one point.
It also helps that there are some betting trends coming into play here.
Chrome are 4-2 against the spread. Whipsnakes have the best straight up record, but with most of their wins coming by just one point, they only possess a 2-4 record against the spread.
Furthermore as we know, underdogs this season against the spread are 15-9 and 44-22 going back through last season.
It can also be argued the sportsbook is almost begging you to take the Whipsnakes spread at a price of +115, which may be a bit of a “trap”. Conversely Chrome’s spread has more heavy juice at a -145 price. So if you believe in this kind of angle, this pricing would support taking Chrome plus the points.
I’ll take Chrome plus the points myself although I also don’t hate it if you like Whipsnakes moneyline.
Pick: Chrome +1.5 (-145)
Sunday 1pm
Waterdogs -1.5 (-130) / ML -185
Cannons +1.5 (+100) / ML +150
Over 24.5 (-130) / Under 24.5 (+100)
Starting off Sunday’s action is 3-3 Waterdogs whose stock appears to be on the rise against 1-5 Cannons who are fighting with Chaos for their playoff lives right now, desperately trying to not be last.
Cannons defense is last in the league with the worst scores against average (14.7) and having given up the most scores against (88). Their keeper, Morocco, is 8th in the league with a 49% save percentage.
Not helping their case this week is that their veteran quarterback on defense, Merrill, has been ruled out for the game with a torso injury. How will Cannons fare without his extremely high lacrosse IQ making calls?
For Waterdogs, defense is an area they should find an edge. One of the stronger points of Cannons’ offense this year is the two man game. Unfortunately for them this is an area Waterdogs defense has excelled against this season.
Furthermore Waterdogs have an absolute difference maker in their goalie, Ward. Injury has been a concern for Ward, coming into the PLL straight from a long championship run in the NLL. Yet that hasn’t stopped him from obtaining a league best 59% save percentage in just two games so far.
On offense Cannons do have talented players. However they seem a bit overly reliant on the trio of Thompson (25 points), Nolting (15 points), and Drenner (15 points). If an opposing defense successfully shuts off one or two of those players, where do Cannons turn with potentially 33-66% of their offense neutralized?
Cannons also added veteran Cockerton to the mix, who could provide some more depth. I’m not sure though that this addition, even with Thompson involved in an efficient two man game and Drenner’s efforts, will be enough to carry Cannons though.
Injury is a bit of a concern again this week for Waterdogs’ offense. Scarpello and more importantly sharpshooter Brown are both ruled out. Schlosser is questionable again, as is star attackman Sowers.
Getting a full game from at least Sowers would be helpful. Although if this isn’t much of a contest it may make more sense to give their injury-prone star some rest.
Despite frequently being bitten by the injury bug, Waterdogs have still been able to get the job done lately. McArdle (19 points), Kelly (15 points), and Currier (10 points) have been helping carry the weight. While Walker (8 points), Conrad (8 points), and Hannah (7 points) have contributed as well.
Developing extra depth now may not be the worst thing for Waterdogs come later in the season, if the injuries can resolve themselves. A reeling Cannons squad may present Waterdogs with a great opportunity to rest up injured players as well as get reps in for different faces.
Waterdogs post a 4-2 record against the spread this season while Cannons stand at 2-4 against the spread.
Waterdogs’ success against the spread often tends to come more as an underdog, and underdogs do lead with spreads in the PLL. However this is most likely another week the favorite shouldn’t have much trouble covering against Cannons.
I think Cannons have a lot of potential the next few years down the road, but this may not be their year or at least not their matchup.
Barring the injuries really crippling Waterdogs or Cannons finding some huge new sparks and additions on offense, the play in this one is going to be to lay the points.
Waterdogs just seem to be clicking at the right time, trending up, and showing enormous potential.
They appear to be the much deeper squad here and that should carry them. Even in their previous few contests, missing players, Waterdogs have still found success.
I’ve really liked what I have seen from Waterdogs lately even with pieces missing here and there. If they can get healthy and keep trending up, Waterdogs could make some noise come playoffs.
For now it’s buy on the Waterdogs and sell for the Cannons.
Pick: Waterdogs -1.5 (-130)
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Sunday 3:30pm
Redwoods -1.5 (+130) / ML -115
Chaos +1.5 (-160) / ML -115
Over 23.5 (-115) / Under 23.5 (-115)
Closing out the weekend is 2-4 Redwoods taking on 1-5 Chaos. Assuming Cannons come out of the weekend 1-6, this game could have implications in the bottom half of the standings and thus the playoff picture.
Chaos most certainly don’t want to fall to 1-6 and be sitting tied for the worst record with Cannons. Andy Towers’ squad will be very hungry for a win here.
Redwoods will look to gain some separation in the standings and improve to 3-4. They appear to be riding high off last week’s win and will look to continue that momentum rather than lose it.
Jack Kelly (48%) should get the start in net for Redwoods. While Chaos sport their not so secret weapon in Riorden (54%). Would have to give the edge in this category to Chaos.
At the faceoff X is where Redwoods may find an advantage with Ierlan (52%). We’ll have to see if he continues to improve or regresses again back to his early season struggles.
Faceoffs for Chaos as of right now are a bit more of a mystery but have potential.
Ragonese is ruled out while both Thomas Kelly (45%) and Adler are listed as questionable. They’ll need one of those two questionables to suit up and hopefully limit Ierlan.
Kelly could be a solid option as he’s a proven player at the X. Although he’d have a very difficult matchup if Ierlan gets in a groove.
Adler is a very solid face off specialist and Chaos would be well served to have him return to the lineup to be relied on for the rest of the season.
However, coming off a long NLL campaign, Adler is yet to suit up in the PLL this summer. Plus Ierlan isn’t the warmest welcome back opponent, so we’ll see when Adler does return how long he does or doesn’t take to get up to speed.
Both squads have struggled to live up to their offensive potential in the points column.
However as of late Chaos felt good beating Cannons and almost beating Whipsnakes, while Redwoods pulled off a big win last week over Atlas.
So while they do rank dead last for offenses in the PLL, there’s been some hope lately of a potential upward turn for both these offenses.
It’s worth noting that Redwoods midfielder Heningburg (15 points) is listed as questionable on the injury report. If he can’t go that would be a big loss for Redwoods. However they hope to and need to develop their offensive depth while getting other guys going more anyways.
Chaos and their Canadian / box style play has brought them success in the past. Yet this season it hasn’t yielded the same results. There’s still time for the reigning champions to make a run, but I’m sure they’re aware it’s gotta start sooner than later.
It may be easy to look and say Redwoods are rightfully favored as their momentum from last week’s big win will carry them. That is very possible and we may see Redwoods do awesome things from here on out.
The other possibility is that Redwoods end up in a bit of what can be known as a “let down spot”. Sometimes if a team gets too confident or dwells too much on a certain game, it may leave them not in the best state of mind and preparation for another game.
I could see Redwoods maybe being slightly distracted or not quite realizing what’s waiting for them here.
Their opponent Chaos, if I haven’t made it clear already, couldn’t be more motivated. They know they’ve got to start winning and they don’t really have any past successes this season to distract them.
While Redwoods may or may not be in the best spot, for Chaos it’s clear they’re in “do or die, give it your all now” time.
So in a game that’s likely to be close (and possibly low scoring) give me the underdog, reigning champions, plus the points. I could honestly see Chaos even grinding out a win here (notice the very close moneylines) but let’s play it safe with the underdog against the spread in case they do lose by 1 point.
If Chaos blow it here though I may be done betting on them for the season.
Pick: Chaos +1.5 (-160)
Conclusion
Well folks, another exciting weekend of PLL action awaits for our viewing pleasure and betting as well, if you so please.
I hope you’re also excited to see how everything unfolds. Events from this weekend could also affect futures bets, so be on the lookout for any angles developing there.
It’s also good to keep searching Twitter and any other sources for the latest or any additional news. Especially with injuries, a player could be ruled fully out or in after I finish writing this but before the first faceoff. Any extra info could help make or break your day.
In the prop betting world we continue to see more offerings on lacrosse, which is music to my ears. Draftkings, Bet MGM, Cool Bet Canada, and others keep testing out new ways to let people bet props for the PLL.
You may now be able to find bets on player’s points, goals, saves, or other stats. There are also some props such as team most saves or first goal scorer floating around. This is all very exciting and I really hope the offerings continue to grow.
We’ll keep feeling out the props for now and I’ll add any angles I decide on for those on my Twitter.
Don’t forget or be afraid to practice bet as well, especially when trying a new type of bet or new bet offering. Then when you hammer down an edge you can place real money wagers.
Hoping everyone enjoys this midsummer weekend and September playoffs will be here before we know it!
Be sure to check out my Twitter for more updates and plays throughout the weekend and as always my DM’s are open with any questions you may have about lacrosse or sports betting @bCostigan84.
Best of luck and let’s cash some bets!
