Well, like Staind said in the early 2000’s, “t’s been awhile.” Nothing really jumped out for me for semifinal weekend outside of UNDER 1.5 goals for Connor Kelly and Chaos +1.5 — both plays I gave out on Ride The Line with Joe Keegan and Jake Watts — but apologies to those who missed out on a PLL Weekend Wager for semifinal weekend!
Way back when during quarterfinal weekend, we went an even 2-2 with wins coming on Justin Guterding OVER 0.5 goals (easiest bet ever…) and a -120 moneyline play on the Whips over the Woods. Our losses were on the under in the Whips-Woods game and Cannons +1.5, both plays that never really had a chance.
So as we head into PLL Championship weekend at Audi Field, we’re still guaranteed to have a profitable season overall on FREE Weekend Wager plays with a 14-9 (60.9%) YTD record. So enough with the recapping, lets get into the Championship rematch between Whipsnakes and Chaos and the final Weekend Wager of the PLL season!
PLL Goal Totals
I have no play on the total this week but after an elongated absence, I gotta give you all some stats that may help you with your weekend wagers! A main reason I’m staying away is simply because the total lines all season long, outside of a couple outliers, have been damn good.
How good? Well, final scores landed within a point and a half of the posted total in just about 40% of games this season, meaning the books had a pretty good read on game flow in the 2021 PLL season. If I were to play the total in this one – and again, I am not – my look would be towards the UNDER 23.5. The numbers say both these squads have been “dead under” teams as UNDER cashed in 55% of Whips games and in 64% of Chaos games this season.
Last year’s title games between these clubs saw a grand total of 18 total scores, even with a nine-goal, 4th quarter run by the Whips. Finally, the lone meeting of these squads in 2021 came in week 1, a 13-7 win by the Whipsnakes.
*Championship Lean: UNDER 23.5 (-110 DraftKings)
PLL Game Spreads / Moneylines
Now here’s where things get fun, while I — and those who rode with me on my semifinal EMO on the Bet On Lacrosse Podcast – get to enjoy Championship Weekend sweat free thanks to a nice hedge opportunity on Chaos +145 to win the title coupled with Whips +175. Even so, I think a case can still be made for taking Chaos on the spread as +1.5 dogs only -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If you’ve been rolling with Andy Towers, Blaze Riorden and Company during their late season run, you’ve cashed 5 straight tickets on Chaos as 1.5 point underdogs, four of those being OUTRIGHT wins. It’s hard to believe that a team that started 0-3 SU and ATS and is the only team to NOT be favored in any game this year has rattled off 7 covers and 6 outright wins. There’s no fluke about it – this team is finding their formula to success.
On the other sideline, the Whipsnakes are looking championship-esque yet again since the return of Matt Rambo and the addition of Jusin Guterding. However, while the Whips come into Sunday’s tilt with a 7-4 overall record, they’re only 2-6 as favorites against the spread with their first cover as -1.5 favorites coming last week. While we may see Rambo, Zeddy and Co. hoisting the trophy again come Sunday, I think there’s enough to warrant a play on Chaos +1.5.
Championship Play: Chaos +1.5 (-105 DraftKings)
PLL Player Props
We gotta go back to the player prop well as were a perfect 2-0 on player props in our Weekend Wagers. I’m hoping we make it 3-0 with a super juicy prop – my best bet for Bet On Lacrosse – which you can get on BetMGM and that is Matt Rambo OVER 0.5 Assists.
This is a textbook example of why I always say if you’re serious about winning money in sports betting you need to have multiple outs to get your action down at. If you wanted to play this prop on DraftKings Sportsbook, you’d have to lay -200 to bet the OVER, on BetMGM the price to lay is only -120. Staying away from laying heavy juice makes a HUGE difference long-term in managing your bankroll, so please people — shop around for the best line available.
Now enough with the betting theory, I think why I like this play is pretty obvious — betting on Rambo to get at least one apple on the stat sheet feels too good to be true. Just how good? Well:
- Rambo is coming off a 2 assist effort in the semifinals
- He had 3 assists in last year’s Championship win over Chaos
- He had 3 assists in the 2019 Championship game
- He has recorded at least 1 assist in 19 of his 26 games in the PLL — that means he’s cashed OVER this number in 73% of his games in the Premier Lacrosse League
- But not least, he’s played in a total of 45 games professionally across all leagues and he has 78 total assists to show for it.
If that’s not enough to make you feel confident in this bet, then as the great Goldmember said, “Dere is no pleashing you.”
Championship Play: Matt Rambo OVER 0.5 Assists (-120 BetMGM)
That’ll do it until next season, thanks for reading all year long! As always, best of luck on your wagers and for an even deeper dive into Championship Weekend, check out the Bet On Lacrosse podcast!
[…] fell to 0-3 and looked disjointed. Otherwise the Chaos defense and play of Riorden kept this one below the 23.5 O/U marker, and, as far as the player props go, if you rode the Chaos on offense, you likely benefited, but if […]