Man, even with the bye weeks this PLL season has flew past. I can’t believe were already talking playoff lacrosse! But I’m not complaining. I love the playoffs of any sport — when you get to see the best in the world in win-or-go-home mode, there is just nothing like it.
Before we get into this week’s action, we’re happy to report we had another winning week on our Weekend Wagers, with an easy cash on Myles Jones OVER 1 goal and Whips getting an outright win as +1.5 underdogs.
Our lone loss came on another total bet where some stellar play from Blaze Riorden and Adam Ghitelman made our OVER 23.5 play in Archers-Chaos just look silly. All in all, we end up 12-7 (63%) on our free Weekend Wager plays which is, as Larry David says, “Pretty, preeeeetty pretty good.”
PLL Goal Totals
While betting totals this year has not been my bag (baby), it is worth mentioning that the PLL’s Quarterfinals see them return to Salt Lake City and the not-as-publicized altitude. We saw totals sizably staying under early on in last year’s Championship Series in Utah, something I thought may have something to do with getting acclimated to the thinner air of Utah.
While I don’t think you can just bet blindly on UNDERS, I do think there may be some value, especially in Saturday’s Whips/Woods tilt. We already know the Redwoods like to use the full shot clock and as I laid on on this week’s edition of Bet On Lacrosse, the likely game flow of this rivalry matchup already has me looking towards the UNDER.
With no TD Ierlan, the Woods don’t want it to turn into make-it take-it for Joe Nardella and the Whips and we now know the Woods will also be without one of their offensive weapons, Sergio Perkovic (24 PTS, 9 G, 5 2PG), which will make their possessions even more critical.
While totals have been my betting Achilles heel this season, I’ll go back to the well one more time for a pizza money play on UNDER 24.5 in Woods-Whips.
Quarterfinal Play: UNDER 24.5 Redwoods vs Whipsnakes
PLL Game Spreads / Moneylines
If we have learned anything from betting the PLL this season, it is that covering as a favorite isn’t easy to do. The teams who saw themselves as underdogs often, such as the Waterdogs & Cannons, have been the best in the league at covering the spread.
No one is more emblematic of this than the new kid on the block Cannons who come into the Quarterfinals a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs. They face another stellar ATS team in Atlas who, despite a two-game ATS skid, are still 6-3 ATS.
These teams have faced off twice this year, both games going the way of Atlas but both being decided by one goal each. The first matchup, an 18-17 win was the last time Atlas have been underdogs on the spread so it’s safe to say fans and oddsmakers alike have come around to what a solid team they are. However, it seems like Cannons have figured out their formula for success and are playing their best lacrosse now when it matters most. They’ve covered three straight games, most recently covering as a favorite for this first time this season.
While I think Atlas may prevail again, I think there’s more than enough value in backing the perfect-as-underdogs Cannons in this one.
Quarterfinals Play: Cannons +1.5 vs Atlas
Despite talking about the Redwoods potentially being worth a look at +1.5 this week against Whipsnakes, that was before we learned about the aforementioned loss of Ierlan and Perkovic. While it pains me to say, since I’m holding a championship ticket on the Woods, I think they may be in trouble in their rivalry match this weekend. While I don’t want any part of the Whips on the spread, where they are 4-5 ATS, we are getting a short line on the moneyline.
Quarterfinals Play: Whipsnakes (-120 BetMGM) vs Redwoods
PLL Player Props
After an easy winner last week, why not throw in another low-total player prop? Look, I know Justin Guterding hasn’t had the season anyone expected, but a lot of that has to do with the fact he was on an injury plagued and just plain bad Chrome team for majority of the season.
After being traded at the deadline to the two-time champs, he only came out of the weekend with a goal and two assists, but he took 6 shots over all. Plenty of attention will be paid the way of Matt Rambo and Zed Williams in this one giving Gutty even more opportunities to exercise his demons from a rough season. All he has to do is net ONE in this one and we’re in the money.
Could it be a trap? Sure. Am I still going to bet it? Damn right.
Quarterfinals Play: Justin Guterding OVER 0.5 Goals (-120)
That’ll do it for our first 2021 playoff edition of the Weekend Wager, if you want to hear Doug Greenberg and I breakdown all three matchups in full detail check out Bet On Lacrosse wherever you get your podcasts. Enjoy the games this weekend and as always, best of luck on your bets!