I don’t know if I’m the only one who thinks the back end of this PLL season is taking FOREVER with all these bye weeks but if it takes a bye for us to be rewarded with a six game pre-playoff slate, I’ll take it! Way back when in Week 6, we ended up with our first “push” week as we went 2-2 in our Weekend Wagers moving us to 10-6 (62.5%) on the year. Not too shabby.
As far as this week’s games, I think it’s tough to handicap any of the Sunday games until after we find out what happens in the Atlas-Waterdogs game. If Atlas keeps rolling and picks up a win, they’re locked in as the #1 seed. However, if the Doggos pull off the upset, things get A LOT more interesting.
That game really decides if Sunday’s games will feature some teams who will be fighting for a first round bye in the playoffs or if we’ll see some teams content with their seeding and not looking to suffer any injuries. So with two out of the six games off the board for me, let’s get into the action!
PLL Goal Totals
The fact that all but two games this weekend opened with a total of 23.5 tells me the oddsmakers believe defense will be the star of the show in Albany. While I don’t outright disagree, I do think there are some spots where we can take advantage of these low totals. The main one being my Best Bet on this week’s Bet On Lacrosse show.
Despite being the best overall defense when judging by a scores per game metric, Archers LC still allow double-digit goals on average (10.0). Even though the market views Chaos LC as a “dead-under” team, they have scored 10 or more goals in all but two of their outings this season, most recently a 14-12 win over Chrome.
And yes, playing overs with Blaze Riorden and his 61% save percentage are never sweat-free, I know. But if a Justin Guterding-less Chrome offense was able to net 12, the OVER with a +25 goal differential Archers is the only look for me in this one.
Week 7 Play: OVER 23.5 in Archers vs Chaos
PLL Game Spreads / Money Lines
We start with Friday’s 6pm ET rivalry tilt between the Whipsnakes and Redwoods.
As much as I want to write a cheesy line tying Matt Rambo potentially being back for Whips together with Eminem’s “Without Me”, I’m not going to do it because that’s just “The Way I Am” and I don’t want to be remembered as corny “When I’m Gone.” Okay, I’m done.
Look, Whipsnakes have failed to meet expectations at every turn this season, despite their 4-3 overall record, they are a measly 2-5 against the spread. However, a lot of that has to do with the fact they are constantly favorites and big favorites at that, laying -2.5 in three games. The one spot we saw Whips as a dog, they covered and won outright against Archers. Now we see them as +1.5 underdogs again against a Redwoods team that easily handled them last time around.
They’ve since added Guterding, presumably will have Matt Rambo back out on the field as they look to put an end to their two-game skid. On the other sideline, despite being one of the best overall teams in the league, the Woods are only 2-4 ATS as favorites this season. So we get the QB MVP back on the field (allegedly), a new offensive toy for Coach Jim Stagnitta, the “revenge” angle AND a bad ATS favorite? Yeah, I’m hammering the Whips +1.5 “‘Till I Collapse.”
Week 7 Play: Whipsnakes +1.5 vs Redwoods
PLL Player Props
Now, the moment we’ve all been waiting for – our first Weekend Wager player prop! I was so excited when PA finally offered some PLL player props and even though all we have is goal scorer props, I’ll take what I can get.
Sticking with the Whips-Woods game, one of the goal scorer props really stood out to me and that was seeing Myles Jones over/under one goal on DraftKings. While Jones has taken on more of a facilitator role this season, evidenced by his 12 assists, he still is a threat to find the twine every time he takes the field. He’s had just one game this season in which he took less than two shots and he has failed to score in only three of the Woods’ seven outings. His lone hat trick on the year also came when facing the Whips just over a month ago.
With a low number of one, I think at worst we see a push, so give me Myles Jones OVER one goal on Friday night.
Week 7 Play: Myles Jones OVER 1 Goal vs Whipsnakes
That’s it for action this week, for a full breakdown of every game on the board check out Bet On Lacrosse. We’ll be back at it for the Quarterfinals but as always, good luck on your bets!