Editor’s Note: This recurring series is written by Billy Costigan.
Welcome back lacrosse fans and sports bettors! Hopefully you thoroughly enjoyed the Premier Lacrosse League All Star Game. It was awesome to see so many amazing players in one game.
Now the second half of the PLL season kicks off this Saturday in Fairfield, Connecticut. You know what that means, more games to bet on!
Mid Season Recap
The first half of the season was not disappointing at all, with many games going right
down to the finish! Now teams have five games left to solidify their chances at playoffs.
Below I’ve posted a chart to help show how each team’s been doing with each different type of bet. There’s also season long league totals for each type of bet at the top of each column:
Now keep in mind it’s a relatively small sample size, but there still may be some useful info to be found.
First you’ll probably notice that a team’s straight up wins record on the moneyline can be very different from a team’s record against the spread.
This speaks to what we’ve discussed previously: that so many games being decided by one point, has led to lots of games where favorites win outright but underdog win against the spread.
Whipsnakes are a prime example of this with four of their five games being decided by just a single point. This leaves Whipsnakes tied for 1st in moneyline records but dead last in against the spread standings.
With three teams going over three times and under twice, plus four teams going over twice and under three times there isn’t as much contrast with totals records.
One outlier again comes with Whipsnakes who’ve gone under four times and over just once. It’s a small sample size and who the opponent is along with other factors come into play. Yet still, a team trending this often to one side is worth keeping an eye on.
It’ll be interesting to see these next five games if favorites continue to rule on the moneyline with underdogs controlling the spread. As well as if any teams stay hot to the over or under.
Week 7 Report
Saturday 5PM
Redwoods +2.5 (-150) / ML +160
Atlas -2.5 (+120) / ML -195
Over 23.5 (-120) / Under 23.5 (-110)
First up this weekend, we have two teams sitting in very different positions. The 4-1 Atlas seem to be firing on full cylinders and sitting atop the league. The 1-4 Redwoods on the other hand find themselves near the bottom of the standings and wondering what’s gone wrong.
Redwoods certainly have the talent with stars like Heninburg (14 points), Jones (10 points), Pannell (14 points), and Garnsey (9 points) among others. Yet they are currently averaging a league worst nine scores per game.
Can they suddenly start producing more on offense or will Nat St. Laurent have to make some changes first either to the roster, positions, or x’s and o’s?
Atlas are currently tied with Archers for a league best average 13.2 scores per game. Their attack of Teat (19 points), Gray (16 points), and Law (15 points) doesn’t show signs of slowing down any time soon. Plus they’re getting midfield production from Costabile (8 points) and even “defensive midfielder” Logan (7 points).
Goaltending has been an issue for Redwoods this year. Seeing action in four games Troutner saved only 36% of shots. In the last two games they gave Kelly a shot and he’s put up a 44% save average.
Kelly did just see a lot of action as well at the World Games. Will these extra reps leave him a bit more tired or did they only help to sharpen his skills?
Would expect to see Kelly get the start here unless fatigue is a real issue at the moment. Although neither keeper fared well in these two squads’ matchup earlier this year.
Concannon for Atlas has been having a better year saving 57% of shots in 5 games.
The faceoff X will be one area Redwoods can hope to gain some ground in. After being injured in Week 5, star Atlas faceoff man (and MVP candidate) Baptiste is ruled out for this matchup. Atlas will likely have to use untested Phaup.
While Redwoods’ faceoff man Ierlan (48%) isn’t having his best year ever, it’s very possible he could dominate this matchup. They’ll need Ierlan to get lots of extra possessions to try to keep up with Atlas’ high powered offense. Nothing spells a get right game for a veteran player than taking on an undrafted rookie.
At first glance Atlas may appear the easy choice here. The moneyline would be very appealing if it wasn’t such a steep price. Perhaps parlay it with one other bet?
Yet Redwoods have shown some positive signs lately. Their defense is playing better holding Archers to only 9 points last outing. They have a good coach and talented offensive players who just need to put up more points as a team if they’re going to capitalize on their defense’s efforts.
If Redwoods defense continues to play well, Kelly steps up in net, Ierlan can exploit the X, and their offense can click some more; it’s rather feasible that they could keep this somewhat close.
To seal the deal for me on this one though is the +2.5 point spread. Last season and this year so far, 2.5 point underdogs are 7-3. That goes right along with the trend we’ve been discussing this year of underdogs being the better pick against the spread and favorites on the moneyline.
It does scare me a bit but I’m going to have to plug my nose and pray for Redwoods to keep this match respectable even if they can’t get the outright win.
Pick: Redwoods +2.5 (-150)
Saturday 7:30PM
Whipsnakes -1.5 (-115) / ML -155
Chaos +1.5 (-115) / ML +125
Over 22.5 (-130) / Under 22.5 (+100)
The second contest of the weekend sees a rematch of the two previous title games and the season opener.
Whipsnakes will be looking to make a statement about their place at the top of the league.
For Chaos it sure feels like a must win. However “must win” doesn’t always mean “must bet”. While they aren’t completely out of it yet, Chaos certainly don’t want to drop into an even deeper hole.
Whipsnakes are still finding production from their attack with Rambo (14 points), Carlson (11 points), and Williams (4 points). Midfielders are also stepping up in Guterding (12 points), Smith (10 points), and Chanenchuk (10 points).
Between the pipes both sides sport a strong net minder. Reigning MVP Riorden is saving 54% of shots for Chaos. While Bernlohr is saving 59% for Whipsnakes and quietly putting himself in MVP discussions.
For faceoffs Whipsnakes roll out proven Nardella who is facing off at 65% this year. Chaos have Ragonese ruled out and Adler questionable for this game. If Adler can make a go that would be huge for Chaos. If not perhaps they will have to turn to Thomas Kelly who is coming in at 50% so far this year.
Injuries are also a concern for Whipsnakes. Star defensive midfielder Puglise is ruled out. Defensive midfielder Bernhardt and long stick midfielder Ehrhardt are both listed as questionable. While hopefully for Whipsnakes, all three don’t miss the game, if they did that could be a blow on the defensive end.
In their last meeting Whipsnakes did get a 9-8 win, but Chaos got the cover. Chaos managed to keep it within just one point, without a ton of their offensive weapons who were still playing in NLL playoffs.
They were missing in that first meeting the likes of Berg, Byrne, Fraser, MacKay, and Dhane Smith. While it was a slow start upon their initial return, they seem to have found their footing in Week 5.
Chaos kept it within 1 point last meeting and since then have gotten so much of their offensive firepower back. Meanwhile Whipsnakes seem addicted to winning games by just one point (4 of 5 this season) and are potentially going to be dealing with more injuries on their defense.
Remember also underdogs are 13-7 against the spread this year and 1.5 point underdogs are 32-16 going back through last season. Not to mention a very good amount of those underdog covers in the past have been by Chaos.
Here we’ve got a fire’d Andy Towers and a Chaos team with their backs against the wall who’ve gotten more additions since the last meeting. On the other side we have Whipsnakes who may be riding a little too high and missing players from the last matchup of these two teams. Both are in a league where underdogs tend to dominate the spread too.
So the spread here is 1.5 and their last meeting was a 1 point game. Now the underdog has gotten more depth and arguably better since the last meeting. I could see this being a one goal win by Whipsnakes as well as a 1 or more goal win for Chaos.
If I’ve learned one thing in the PLL so far, it’s that we (unfortunately) can never count out Chaos completely. So give me Chaos plus the points to start their run here.
Pick: Chaos +1.5 (-115)
Sunday 2PM
Cannons +2.5 (-135) / ML +175
Archers -2.5 (+105) / ML -215
Over 24.5 (-115) / Under 24.5 (-115)
Starting off Sunday is another matchup which appears quite lopsided on paper as 3-2 Archers take on 1-4 Cannons.
Archers’ usual suspects on offense Holman (15 points), Manny (22 points), and Schreiber (17 points) have all been cooking with gas this year. They also recently got Fields (1 point) back out there, in addition to rookies Moore (14 points) and DeSimone (12 points) who have been holding their own.
Doesn’t help Cannons that Archers’ attackman Ament may possibly make his debut this week. However he’s still currently listed as questionable on the injury report. Even without Ament so far though, Archers have the number one offense.
Also just with the 6 other Archers than Ament I listed above, who are you supposed to put the short stick d middies on (especially if you add a 7th offensive weapon in Ament)? Plus there have been plenty of other Archers making offensive contributions as well.
Only logical option would be the rookies. However I would not want to be covering Moore with just a shortie, as we’ve seen him run and score through them many times already.
Cannons goalie Marrocco (50%) is treading water this season. Not to mention Cannons team defense ranks dead last. They’ll have a very tough test against this dangerous Archers offense.
Ghitelman comes in saving 52% of shots. Barring that he isn’t too burnt out from playing short stick at the World Games (which I doubt he is), I think I’d rather have Ghitelman. The Archers defense also ranks 2nd in the league.
Faceoffs again are a potential issue for Archers though. If Inacio (36%) can go, hopefully he can find more success this weekend. However if Inacio can’t go their other option would be Labetti (37%) who I can’t see finding too much more success (unless playing on his alma mater’s turf maybe gives him some kind of boost).
For Cannons they could turn to Stephen Kelly (50%) or Alex Woodall (62%). They’ll most certainly need any advantage they can get, so extra possessions (to keep the ball out of Archers’ offense’s sticks) would be huge.
One essential element for Cannons to have any shot will be the health of their star and all time great Thompson (18 points). He wasn’t on the injury report this week yet, but has been dealing with injuries off and on this season. Also Thompson did not participate in the World Games or All Star Game over the break.
Hopefully for Cannons that break was an abundance of caution and the rest Thompson needed. You can’t deny Thompson’s huge contributions and thus the hole that would be left in his absence. While rookie Nolting (14 points) has looked good so far, his production could shrink without Thompson to work the two man game with.
Despite all the highlighting of underdog trends we’ve done, I don’t think this is a matchup to ride with the dog. While Cannons may find a way to keep it closer than their 20-9 loss earlier this season, I don’t see many ways how.
Archers just have so much more depth at multiple positions. Not to mention Cannons’ best player may not be 100% healthy.
If trends were right all the time, it’d be a lot easier to get rich and sportsbooks would be going under left and right. We all know that’s not the case. Sometimes what you see and evaluate of actual game play outweighs any previous records.
Choice here is Archers to cover the spread unless you want to parlay Archers moneyline with one other bet you feel very strongly about. Don’t forget though we want to limit any parlays to as few legs as possible, preferably just 2 or 3 at most.
Pick: Archers -2.5 (+105)
Sunday 4:30pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+)
Chrome -1.5 (+100) / ML -145
Waterdogs +1.5 (-130) / ML +115
Over 24.5 (-115) / Under 24.5 (-115)
Closing out the weekend is a team maybe not many expected to be so high in the standings at this point, the 4-1 Chrome vs the young and hungry 2-3 Waterdogs.
Chrome has no doubt been putting up good numbers on offense. Players like Wisnauskas (18 Points), Nichtern (17 points), Molloy (16 points), Anderson (10 points), and MacIntosh (9 points) have been contributing.
Yet it seems Chrome prefers to only turn their offense up later in the game when already trailing significantly. While their numerous comebacks have worked out so far, one has to wonder how many more times they can pull those off?
Waterdogs have found success with Sowers (15 points), McArdle (15 points), Kelly (12 points), Currier (9 points), and others. However Schlosser (3 points) is ruled out and offensive weapon Brown (11 points) is questionable.
They’ll be hoping Brown can suit up for sure. If not then can Hannah (7 points), Walker (7 points), and Conrad (5 points) make up the difference?
At the faceoff X Chrome would appear to have an edge with Farrell who is currently at 61% this season. Waterdogs can throw at him any combination of Whithers (47%) and Tucci (46%).
For Waterdogs even if their faceoff men can’t dominate against Farrell, hopefully they can at least neutralize him. That’s often the best you can hope for against an elite faceoff specialist.
In net Chrome are sporting big man Sconone (51%). While Waterdogs hope their star goalie Ward (67%). will be recovered from a Week 5 hand injury, or they’ll have to go with DeLuca (46%).
Despite Waterdogs potential injury and faceoff issues, if they get Ward in net I’m going to have to take the underdog in this one. That goalie can be an absolute game changer as we saw in Week 5.
An earlier meeting of these teams this season resulted in a 17-14 win for Chrome. However I’ve really been liking the direction Waterdogs seem to be heading lately. Don’t forget how they turned it on later last season.
If Ward is playing the whole game I’m very confident in Waterdogs +1.5 and even if he doesn’t play I’m still pretty comfortable with that pick.
Pick: Waterdogs +1.5 (-130)
Conclusion
There we have it folks, another weekend of PLL games broken down for your betting and / or viewing pleasure.
While the World Games and All Star Game were fun to watch, I’m personally very excited to have regular season PLL weekends to bet on again. As well as eager to see how the rest of the season unfolds!
Will underdogs continue getting covers as favorites squeak out moneyline wins by just a point?
Also almost expecting the unexpected in the PLL. Given the league’s history, it wouldn’t really surprise me if a team lower in the standings now, ends up making a deep playoff run. Perhaps Chaos from the bottom or Waterdogs from the middle of the pack?
We didn’t get into as much betting theory or strategies this week. Hopefully though you’re still practicing previous methods we’ve discussed.
You’ve always got to manage your bankroll, stay vigilant of the lines / news, do as much research as possible to cut through the noise / narratives, and try to get the best number.
If you’re looking for a brush up on the basics of betting or are brand new I highly recommend you go check out Part 1 and Part 2 of my Betting Guide I did for Lacrosse Playground back in April.
Also if you missed it or are looking to get into futures for the first time my previous two pieces before this one were a two part guide to betting futures.
Part 1 focuses on futures like league winners, ect. Part 2 focuses on betting futures on awards, with special emphasis on awards that are voted on (and not statistic based) as they tend to have extra elements to examine.
All of these guides are still loaded with free and very useful betting tips, theories, strategies, and angles that will help you bet on any sport anytime!
Be sure to check out my Twitter for more updates and plays throughout the weekend and as always my DM’s are open with any questions you may have about lacrosse or sports betting @bCostigan84.
Best of luck and let’s cash some bets!
