Man, was it hot in Baltimore for week 3 PLL action, but luckily we stayed just as hot here for our Weekend Wagers! Our lone official play last week, OVER 20.5 in Cannons vs. Atlas, wasn’t even a bit of a sweat as we saw the teams combine for 35 scores moving us to 5-1 overall. Now the action heads to Long Island for a Fourth of July Weekend set that should feature plenty of fireworks (corny, I know).
PLL Goal Totals
After last week’s OVER winner for us, why not go back to the well for week four? The total that made my eyes pop out of my head was 28.5 in Sunday’s Archers vs. Whipsnakes tilt. Since releasing that UNDER as a Best Bet for Bet On Lacrosse, we officially have gotten word that the Whips will be without Matt Rambo as they look to bounce back from their first loss in two years and the total has dropped to 27.5. Even with the point adjustment, I’m still looking towards the UNDER for plenty of reasons.
First, I get it, it’s the two best teams facing off so there’s going to be a lot of back and forth scoring, right? I think not. Whips Head Coach Jim Stagnitta is one hell of a coach. He’s likely well-aware that the Whips can’t go blow for blow currently with Archers, especially without Matt Rambo and potentially Zed Williams sidelined. I expect there to be an extra defensive focus and also expect to see an extra-motivated Kyle Bernlohr in cage for the Whips as he looks to bounce back off his worst outing in 2021, allowing 16 goals to Atlas.
Secondly, I know the story of the season is Archers offense, but how about that defense and the MVP-caliber season we’re seeing from net-minder Adam Ghitelman? Some may think the +25 scoring differential for Archers is solely due to the offensive powerhouse they have been through their three games, but a quick look at the stats shows that their defense, allowing just 7.3 scores per game, is just as big in their formula for success.
Finally, even at 27.5, this is the highest total we’ve seen in the 2021 season. Only two games have gone over this number, both of which featured Cannons LC (their 15-14 loss to Whipsnakes in week two and last week’s 18-17 track meet against Atlas). All of these factors lead me to still like this UNDER play at 27.5, and I like it all the way down to 25.5.
Week 4 Play: Under 27.5 total goals in Archers vs. Whipsnakes
PLL Game Spreads / Money Lines
After last week’s pass-a-palooza and only having leans on sides, I have a few official plays for this week. First of which was my Extra Money Opportunity for Bet On Lacrosse, ATLAS -1.5 over Chrome on Sunday. While it has since dropped to +100 on DraftKings, you can still get some more bang for your buck on FanDuel (+120) or on BetMGM (+105).
I think the market is finally catching up to the fact that the 3-1 ATS Atlas are not the team we saw in week one that was just overmatched by Archers LC. This is the first week Atlas see themselves as favorites in 2021 after covering 3 straight games, two of which being outright wins over Redwoods and Cannons. While it does worry me a bit that Chrome is starting to find their own identity after a rough start to the year, I’m fine with backing 007 Jeff Teat and Old Sport Jake Carraway in their first favorite role. Give me ATLAS -1.5.
Week 4 Play: Atlas to cover -1.5 vs. Chrome
My final Week 4 play comes in Saturday’s 1-3 bowl between Chaos and Cannons, where after three straight games as an underdog, Cannons find themselves as -1.5 favorites for the second straight week. While they failed to cover, or win, in their first favorite spot in Baltimore, I think they get their second overall win and their first cover as a favorite on Long Island.
Could the case be made that after taking down the Redwoods, Chaos will right the ship and go on a roll like we saw at the end of the bubble last year? Sure. Am I going to bet on it? No way.
Look, while Cannons sit at 1-3, they’re still 3-1 against the spread, meaning they have been every bit as competitive as any team in the league. Even with Lyle Thompson getting blanked in the goal department last week, this team still put up 17 scores in a losing effort. The slow pace at which the Redwoods like to play at allowed Chaos to set up their box-meets-field offense perfectly and not get lost in the shuffle. Cannons will look to push the pace and get their second win of the year and I think they’ll have success, give me CANNONS -1.5.
Week 4 Play: Cannons to cover -1.5 vs. Chaos
For even more information and angles to bet the week four PLL board, check out the Bet On Lacrosse show where ever you get your podcasts. Enjoy your Independence Day Weekend and as always, best of luck on your bets!